Elimination Eval: Edmonton Oilers

The Edmonton Oilers got their chance at revenge, but for the second season in a row they've fallen to the Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Finals. That is now six consecutive postseasons where the Oilers have made the playoffs but failed to get the job done, and the seventh time in the era of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. It felt like things were different this year. They won that first game, were the comeback kids, and were never out of the fight. But in the end, they ran out of juice against a team that is on the brink of being labeled a dynasty. 

Expectations

After battling their way back into the last year's Stanley Cup Final from being down in 3-0 only to lose in Game 7, the expectation for the Edmonton Oilers was to be right back there this season—to the point where Zach Hyman was in the locker room after that Game 7 loss telling every single one of his teammates that they’d be back the following year. Sure enough, that’s exactly what happened. The Oilers looked like they had learned their lessons from the year prior (except when it comes to goaltending), took care of business in the opening rounds, and were right back in the Final for a Stanley Cup rematch. 

Prior to getting there, the Oilers brought in some reinforcements in free agency last summer signing Troy Stetcher, Viktor Arvidsson, and Jeff Skinner. They re-signed Mattias Janmark, Corey Perry, Connor Brown, and, most notably, Leon Draisaitl to make him an Oiler for the next eight years. They brought in John Klingberg as a mid-season signing and traded for Jake Walman, Trent Frederic, and Max Jones at the deadline. This team wasn’t an otherworldly improvement from the one the Panthers saw just one year ago, but they were a deeper team. 

Playoff Recap

The Oilers playoff run started with an opening series against the Kings for the fourth season in a row. The Oilers fell behind 2-0 in the series and trailed 2-0 in the first period of Game 3 before rallying to win that game and the next three to dispatch the Kings four games to two. 

Building off that momentum in Round 1, the Oilers would handle the Vegas Golden Knights rather easily, defeating them 4-1 to advance to the Western Conference Final to take on the Dallas Stars. 

The Stars had looked impressive through the first two rounds, but were no match for the Oilers, who took the series 4-1 over Dallas, sending them on to their second consecutive Stanley Cup Final and a rematch with the Florida Panthers.

Game 1: Leon Draisaitl scored just 66 seconds into the game, giving his team the start they desperately needed. Unfortunately, that would be about all they had at the start as the Panthers scored three unanswered to give them a 3-2 lead heading into the second intermission. The Oilers got the game tying goal from an unlikely hero in Mattias Ekholm to send the game to overtime where it was once again Leon Draisaitl calling game with a beauty of a one-time snapshot from the hashmarks to put his team up 1-0 in the series. 

Game 2: This time it was Florida with a big start as Sam Bennett scored on an early power play to put his team up 1-0. Two goals in just as many minutes from the Oilers gave them a brief lead before Seth Jones tied it 2-2. Draisaitl picked up a power play goal of his own to give Edmonton the lead heading into the first intermission. The tide turned in the second as a pair of goals from Brad Marchand and Dmitry Kulikov gave Florida a 4-3 lead heading into the third. However, Corey Perry tied the game with 18 seconds left, once again sending the teams to overtime. In hindsight, this is the one you can label the game changing moment of the series. Had the Oilers found a goal and took a 2-0 series lead, maybe the Cup would’ve been within their reach. Instead, it was Brad Marchand as the 2OT hero, tying the series up at 1-1.

Game 3: This is option A for the low point of the series, as the Oilers surrendered a goal to Brad Marchand less than a minute in, and went into intermission trailing by two after Carter Verhaeghe notched the first of what would be three power play goals for Florida in the game. Corey Perry converted on a power play in the second period but that would be the Oilers only goal as they would drop Game 3 by a score of 6-1.

Game 4: It sure didn’t look good through the first twenty minutes of play as the Panthers scored three goals in the opening period to put the Oilers down 3-0. This became one of, if not the craziest game of the entire postseason, as a pep talk from the veteran Corey Perry sparked another massive Edmonton comeback to tie the game up 3-3. Both sides exchanged goals in the third to force the game to overtime where who else but Leon Draisaitl was there to get it done in extras. With the series now tied at two, the Stanley Cup Final turned into a best of three.

Game 5: With everything tied up at two, Game 5’s are about as important as any game could get. Once again, it was a brutal opening period for the Oilers as Sam Bennett and Brad Marchand each found the back of the net to give the Panthers a 2-0 lead heading into the second period. Marchand picked up another to make it 3-0 early in the third on their way to a 5-2 victory for Florida.

Game 6: The Oilers got off to the type of start a team in their situation needed to, but once Florida had the opportunity to exploit their weaknesses, it was all over. A poor defensive mistake resulted in Sam Reinhart coming in all alone on Skinner and sniping a shot past him to make it a 1-0 game. Matthew Tkachuk, who was somehow playing through a torn abductor and a hernia extended their lead to 2-0 with a minute to go in the opening period. Then, it became the Sam Reinhart show as he scored late in the second and picked up two empty netters, becoming the sixth player in league history to score four goals in a Stanley Cup Final—the first player to do it since a guy by the name of Maurice Richard. Vasily Podkolzin spoiled Sergei Bobrovsky’s shutout late in the third period, but it was too little too late. The Oilers looked tired and spent, they ran out of gas and the Panthers became the first team to win back-to-back Stanley Cups since Tampa in 2020 and 2021. Quite the decade for hockey in Florida. 

Prediction 

If you’ve been following along with this series, you know my bracket ended up being a complete disaster. I had the Oilers losing to the Kings in the first round, but when I made my second round picks, I did have them beating Vegas in the second round. However, when it came time for the Conference Finals I had Dallas winning the series. For the Cup Final, I took Edmonton over Florida so apparently I should have continued to doubt them.   

Was the Season a Success? 

With the exception of years like this upcoming season where there’s a generational talent in the draft class (Gavin McKenna), every single team in the National Hockey League enters the season wanting to win the Stanley Cup. Only 16 teams get to the dance, only two teams battle it out in the final, and, in the end, only one wins it. Edmonton’s goal after losing in the Cup Final last year was to get right back to the dance the following season, and got there they did. They even improved in the sense they didn’t go down in the series 3-0 and have to fight their way to Game 7 the hard way. The only thing harder than winning Stanley Cups is getting to the Cup Final in back-to-back years, so in that sense, it was a successful run for the Oilers. 

However, it’s impossible for anyone in that Oilers locker room or anyone that roots for that team to feel that sense of accomplishment right now. But they should be relatively proud of the fact that they were able to get back there and compete for the Cup two years in a row. Still, to come out of both of those empty handed, it’s hard not to look at it as a failure. 

UFA’s/RFA’s

Like many teams, the Oilers are going to have some work to do this summer. They have quite a few unrestricted free agents, but their biggest concern is going to center around their lone restricted free agent, Evan Bouchard. If there was ever any doubt who their top defenseman was, Bouchard proved that this season and throughout the playoffs. He will be due a significant raise and with the Oilers only having about $12 million in cap space to work with, it’s going to be a bit of a challenge. 

As for their UFA’s, the Oilers have Jeff Skinner, Corey Perry, Connor Brown, Kasperi Kapanen, Trent Frederic (who they immediately resigned to an 8-year, $32 million extension), John Klingberg, and Derek Ryan all set to hit the open market in just a few weeks. Would the Oilers like to keep a portion of those names? Probably. Are they going to be able to? Probably not. With limited cap space and two big needs in getting Bouchard resigned and finding more capable goaltending, the Oilers aren’t in a position to throw any blank checks around. Every single one of these players has the “I was just within two wins of a Stanley Cup” card to play in negotiations this summer, they’ll get paid on the open market. 

Biggest Question Moving Forward

There are a lot of questions we can ask about this team. The first and most simple one is, can this group get back to the final for the third year in a row? I mentioned how difficult it is just to get to the dance let alone to go the distance, and those types of run take a toll on guys both mentally and physically. The question is, can this group overcome that adversity and finally go the distance? 

The second biggest question is goaltending, and since we’re a Rangers website first and foremost, I beg any of you who were against Igor Shesterkin getting his money to take notes on this part. The Oilers were within two wins of a Stanley Cup and still sweating out the decision of who was going to start in net for them when it all mattered most. Calvin Pickard, who I’m willing to bet most casual fans have never heard of prior to this postseason, did a fantastic job but is just not the horse you can ride to a championship. I like Stuart Skinner, and I’m sure he’s a great guy, but for two years in a row it’s been clear as day that he isn’t the guy either. The Oilers need a true number one goaltender they can rely on, specifically come playoff time. If you're a team that has a clear, established number one goalie or, even better, a team that has one of the top five goalies in the league (yes, that includes the Rangers) do not take what you have for granted.

Lastly, there's Connor McDavid. Look, I know the chances of him ever leaving Edmonton aren’t very high. Leon Draisaitl signed that big eight year deal, and I’m sure McDavid won’t abandon him. But we have to talk about it, right? Two consecutive Cup Final losses later McDavid isn’t getting any younger. If there is any doubt in his mind about whether or not this franchise can get it done, how sure can we be that he’ll stay an Oiler for life?  Until the ink is dry on that 8-year, $19.7 million AAV extension he'll surely sign with the Oilers, I will continue to do everything I can to speak him becoming a New York Ranger into existence.

Projected Lineup

Nugent-Hopkins - McDavid - Hyman
Kane - Draisaitl - ?
Janmark - Henrique - Arvidsson 
Jones - ? - Podkolzin
Tomasek

Ekholm - Bouchard* 
Nurse - Kulak
Walman - Stecher
Emberson

Skinner - Pickard

(*-RFAs)

Final Thoughts

On paper, looking at their projected lineup, I don’t see any reason they can’t be a top contending team out of the West again next year. When you really look at it though, how many more miles does Mattias Ekholm really have on him? Or Adam Henrique? Or how about Viktor Arvidsson, who’s often dealing with injuries? Is Darnell Nurse a guy you can count on? Nugent-Hopkins, Hyman, and Kane are all in their mid-30s. The clock is ticking and it’s getting louder and louder. This team needs goaltending and a serious retooling of their supporting cast. Maybe if they draw a different opponent they can win a Cup on the backs of McDavid and Draisaitl alone, but it’s proven to be insufficient against a team like Florida.