Elimination Eval: Dallas Stars

For the third consecutive season, the Dallas Stars made it as far as the Western Conference Final, but could not punch their ticket to the Stanley Cup Final. At times, especially in this postseason, the Stars appeared to be one of, if not the best team in the entire league. On paper, they had a ton of depth, star power, and just played an outstanding game. But when push came to shove, it wasn't enough to compete with the force that is the Edmonton Oilers, who are led by the two best players in the entire league. 

Expectations

If there’s any team in this league that’s running out of patience, it has to be the Dallas Stars. With three straight Conference Final appearances, only missing the playoffs three times since 2016, and a trip to the Stanley Cup Final in 2020, they’ve come just about as close as anyone not named Corey Perry—who was indeed a member of that 2020 team. The Stars were expected to be a top team in the West heading into the season and by the time the playoffs rolled around, they were expected to be one of the favorites. 

In preparation for this season, the Stars made a couple of helpful depth signings in free agency. They brought in Casey DeSmith to back up Jake Oettinger, who went on to sign a notable extension later in the summer. They added former friends Colin Blackwell and Brendan Smith, as well as Ilya Lybushkin and Matt Dumba. This helped replenish their depth on defense as they traded Chris Tanev to Toronto in the first of several moves that actually saw Dallas subtracting more than adding on the trade market.

In addition to sending Tanev to Toronto, they sent Ty Dellandrea to San Jose for a fourth round pick, and gave St. Louis Radek Faksa for an invaluable player named "future considerations." The Stars waited until February to start buying as they sent San Jose a first and fourth rounder in exchange for Mikael Granlund and Cody Ceci—trade I really liked for them as Granlund was having a great year and went on to help them a ton throughout the playoffs. 

Then, of course, there was the Mikko Rantanen deal, which drastically changed the trajectory of their season. The Stars sent Carolina Logan Stankoven, two firsts, and two thirds for Mikko Rantanen, who went on to sign an eight-year extension with the Stars. Rantanen’s impact became evident in Game 7 of the opening round and throughout the rest of the postseason. It was a big price to pay to get him, but this is a top-tier, elite player that is going to help the Stars for a long time.

Playoff Recap

The Stars didn’t have the easiest road to navigate throughout round one as they took on another Western Conference powerhouse in the Colorado Avalanche, dispatching them in seven games.

The run wouldn’t get any easier as Dallas was faced with the Presidents’ Trophy winning Winnipeg Jets in the Conference Semifinals. It was Thomas Harley's overtime winner in Game 6 that sent the Stars back to the Conference Finals for a rematch with the Edmonton Oilers. 

Game 1 would end up being the high moment for the Stars in the Conference Final. Despite Leon Draisaitl picking up the first goal of the game halfway through the first period, Tyler Seguin tied it up before heading to intermission. The Oilers extended their lead to 3-1 after two periods, but the Stars would answer big time in the third. Three power play goals within a span of five and a half minutes gave the Stars a 4-3 lead that they turned into a 6-3 win with another goal from Seguin and an empty netter from Esa Lindell. 

The Oilers were quick to take the advantage that came from a big win away from the Stars in Game 2, as Ryan Nugent-Hopkins opened the scoring on the power play just over five minutes in to the first period. Two goals within a span of just over a minute in the second period from Brett Kulak and Connor Brown helped put this one out of reach, as Stuart Skinner had a 25 saves to earn the shutout in a 3-0 Edmonton win. The bigger loss for Dallas, however, would be Roope Hintz, who left the game early after taking a nasty slash from Darnell Nurse away from the play. 

Game 3 would be a big moment in the series and, once again, goals seemed to come in bunches. Within a span of 36 seconds, goals from Evan Bouchard and Connor McDavid gave the Oilers a 2-0 lead over Dallas in the first period. Jason Robertson, who missed parts of Dallas’ playoff run with injury, picked up his first of the series to bring them back within one late in the second. McDavid scored again late in the period to extend their lead to 3-1 heading into the final intermission. The game completely got away from Dallas in the third as Zach Hyman picked up a pair of goals, and John Klingberg added another on the power play to finalize the score, 6-1. 

There’s so many different factors that go into a team having playoff success, but special teams is always one of the most important ones. Game 4 would become the game changer as the Stars needed a win to get back in the series, but came out of it with their third consecutive loss. Leon Draisaitl opened the scoring on the power play in the first. Shortly after Jason Robertson answered with a power play goal of his own in the second, Corey Perry put one home on the man advantage to give Edmonton the lead for good. Kasperi Kapanen and Adam Henrique picked up empty netters to secure a 4-1 win, giving the Oilers the 3-1 lead on the series. 

Game 5 would be the low moment for the Stars, and not just in the playoffs as this what happened in the first period (and in the post-game press conference) has the potential to have a cascading effect on the future of this franchise. The Stars gave up two goals within the first seven minutes of the game, at which point Peter DeBoer pulling his star goaltender, Jake Oettinger. That clearly wasn’t the problem as the Oilers scored just a minute later on Casey DeSmith to make it a 3-0 game. Jason Robertson was able to stop the bleeding, making it 3-1 heading into the first intermission, and Roope Hintz scored on a power play in the second period to bring Dallas within one. But it wasn't enough. Connor McDavid scored to extend the lead to two a few minutes later. Jason Robertson scored again less than a minute into the third, but Evander Kane had an answer for the Oilers a few minutes later, stretching their lead back to two. An empty net goal from Kasperi Kapanen would ice it, giving Edmonton the win in Game 5, 6-3. It was a game that, at times was close, but really didn't feel that way as the Stars couldn't seem to bounce back after dropping Game 2.

Prediction 

Once my bracket went to hell and the final four teams were set, I pivoted to the Dallas Stars and had them going the distance. Will I ever learn not to doubt the Oilers? Maybe it would help if they actually had confident goaltending. But nonetheless, my original bracket had the Stars falling to the Jets in the Conference Semifinals so they made it a little further than I predicted.

Was the Season a Success? 

I mean, they got Mikko Rantanen, so that’s a win! On all other counts, no, this season was not a success for the Dallas Stars, especially with the way it all ended. This is a team that seems due for a Stanley Cup, and a team that had as good a chance as anyone to get it done. They fell short on accomplishing that goal and, as a result, face a ton of questions for how they are going to move forward. There appears to be a ton of unhappy players in that locker room, and the coach whose decisions led to or worsened that unhappiness is entering the final year of his contract, and management that could be losing patience. 

Teams like Colorado and Vegas, who fell short this year, get a bit of a pass as they’ve won championships in recent years. The Stars have come close so many times in recent history, but still haven’t gone the distance since 1999. At a certain point these great seasons become less of an accomplishment and more of a frustration that they can’t get over that hump. 

UFA’s/RFA’s

The Stars are going to have a busy summer, to say the least. There are some major names on their roster who are pending unrestricted free agents, including their captain, Jamie Benn. Beyond that, they have Mikael Granlund, Matt Duchene, Evgenii Dadonov, Colin Blackwell, Cody Ceci, and Brendan Smith. Almost all of them could hit the open market, especially as this team might start to consider a retool of sorts. 

The Stars have two RFA’s in Mavrik Bourque and Nils Lundkvist, one of which is more of a concern than the other. At this point, I don’t expect Lundkvist to become a full-time NHLer. But Bourque, on the other hand, will be highly sought after, whether it’s via trade or potential offer sheets. Given where the Stars are and that they’re pretty locked in with their 1-2 punch of Roope Hintz and Wyatt Johnston, they could be wise to shop Bourque if the price is right. 

Biggest Question Moving Forward

Like I said, there are a ton of questions for this team moving forward. But at this point, the main question is whether or not it’s time to blow this core to smithereens. Jamie Benn is a pending UFA, he could make a killing on the open market, and he would be the easiest place to start in terms of a retool. Beyond that, you also have Tyler Seguin entering the final year of his contract. If you decide to move on from Benn, you might as well see what you could get for Seguin on the trade market if he is willing to waive his trade protection. 

Then there’s the Jason Robertson of it all. Robertson signed a bridge deal back in 2022, which is set to expire at this time next year, leaving him an RFA. Multiple reports are already coming out that Robertson is among a number of players who are unhappy with how some things have been handled by the Stars and head coach Peter DeBoer. If that is indeed the case, there should be 31 teams with interest in Jason Robertson, the Rangers especially. For the Stars, moving Robertson could also bring back a ton of assets that could help retool while staying competitive. 

Projected Lineup

Robertson - Hintz - Rantanen
Marchment - Johnston - Seguin
? - Bourque* - ?
Steel - Back - ?

Lindell - Heiskanen 
Harley - Lyubushkin
Bichsel - Dumba
Lundkvist* - Petrovic 

Oettinger - DeSmith

(*-RFAs)

Final Thoughts

Honestly it might be time for this team to make a full commitment in shifting its core from Benn and Seguin to Hintz, Johnston, and Rantanen. To do that, they need to move on from Benn, look into shopping Tyler Seguin, and move Robertson if you feel you need to and see what you can do to retool on the fly. This team has a star goalie in Jake Oettinger, a star in the making on defense in Thomas Harly, not to mention Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell also on the backend. Down the middle you have Hintz, Johnston, and Bourque, ideally, and plenty of useful players on the wing. They'll be an interesting team to keep an eye on this summer as they have the chance to make a ton of moves but should be in a good spot to run it back next year.