Elimination Eval: Montreal Canadiens

After squeezing back into the playoffs for the first time since losing to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2021 Stanley Cup Final, the Montreal Canadiens ran out of magic and came up short against the Washington Capitals in five games. Like head coach (and former Ranger) Martin St. Louis said post-game:

“The pain that you feel right now is normal. But I think that it’s not even close to the [joy] that’s coming”

I think that sums up the Canadiens' season rather perfectly. While you never want to hear that final buzzer go off and be on the receiving end of the handshake line, this is a team that has no reason but to hold their heads high after the rollercoaster of a season they had. 

Expectations

Heading into the season, the Montreal Canadiens weren’t necessarily expected to be a playoff team. But, at their best, perhaps they’d be right there knocking on the door. This was a team that was near the bottom of the standings around Thanksgiving, and yet somehow managed to land a wildcard spot. They were a team that when they were hot, they were almost unbeatable. But when they were not, they couldn’t seem to win a game. 

Sixteen wins across December and January really helped Montreal get their season back on track. But as much as that streakiness helped, perhaps as much as it hurt them just as much. They would only win only once in a nine game stretch from late January into February, rattled off a five-game win streak after the 4 Nations Face-Off, lost five in a row after the trade deadline, just to follow that up with a six-game win streak. While they certainly cut it close, they edged out the Rangers and Blue Jackets among several others to secure that last wild card spot. And, honestly, it was their fight that got them there. 

Series Recap

In hindsight, game 1 probably played a bigger role in the outcome of this series than anyone realized. Had Montreal won this game, momentum could have swung in their favor and led to a much different outcome. Despite an Alex Ovechkin goal to put Montreal behind late in the first, goals from Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki tied the game up at two in the third period. This was exactly why I went with Montreal in my bracket seeing as they had that fight in them to pull off these types of comebacks and forcing overtime in game 1 was a great start. 

Alas, after a physical game where Montreal kind of struggled through the start, Ovechkin picked up another big goal in overtime to secure the game 1 win for Washington. Despite the loss, Montreal netminder Sam Montembeault stood on his head and gave them a fighting chance.

Montreal came out of the first period unscathed in game 2, and got on the board first just over a minute into the second period on a Christian Dvorak goal. But a pair of goals a minute apart from Washington put them behind 2-1. Montembeault continued to do all he could but Connor McMichael iced it when an empty net goal for the 3-1 loss. Down two games to none, Montreal needed an answer if they were going to stay alive in this series. 

Game 3 was about as unhinged as any game we’ve seen in the playoffs so far this side of the battle of Florida. A massive brawl resulted in Tom Wilson and Josh Anderson fighting their way down an empty bench, throwing haymakers at each other at the end of the second period. Credit to Anderson and Montreal from not shying away from the literal fight.

As if that wasn’t enough, both teams would end up losing their starting goaltenders as both Montembeault and Logan Thompson left the game early with injuries, replaced by Jakub Dabos and Charlie Lindgren, respectively. 

Montreal had six different goal scorers throughout the night, putting up a 6-3 win on home ice. This was without question the high moment in the series for Montreal as much as it was a potential series-changing moment. They proved they could hang with a team like Washington, got their offense going, and overcame adversity to give Jakub Dobes a memorable first career playoff win. 

Game 4 without question was a low point for Montreal. Not only did they have the chance to tie the series up, but they had a 2-1 lead after two periods of play. Montreal was still without Montembeault, while Washington did get Logan Thompson back, and once Brandon Duhaime tied the game about six minutes into the third, it may as well have been game over. Tom Wilson took out Alexandre Carrier with a massive hit that gave his team momentum, resulting in three more goals. Washington took this one 5-2 and had the chance to end the series on home ice. 

Montreal fought as much as they could, but at the end of the day, Washington proved to be the better and more experienced team. Ovechkin converted on another power play goal halfway through the first and two minutes later, Jakob Chychrun made it a 2-0 game. From that moment on, Montreal spent the rest of the night desperately trying to get something going, but could not find a way to do so. Wilson made it 3-0 late in the second and despite a goal from Emil Heineman and a strong push from the rest of the team, Brandon Duhaime picked up an empty netter to secure the 4-1 win in both the game and the series. 

Prediction

Montreal was actually my one bold prediction as I had them taking the series in seven. I thought the Capitals would have a bit of an "895 hangover" and that their magic would start to wear off a bit, but I was wrong. They had the edge in experience, physicality, and was just the more complete team. 

Was the Season a Success?

This season was definitely a success for Montreal. They’ve missed the playoffs more times than they’ve made them since they started their rebuild in the mid-2010s’, but what they’ve built in that time and what they’ve shown this season definitely leaves their fans feeling optimistic. That top line of Suzuki, Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky is absolutely lethal, and that’s not to mention all the other young, promising talent they have. Lane Hutson has proven he can be a top defenseman for this team, Ivan Demidov has entered the equation sooner than most probably expects, Kaiden Guhle continues to make an impact on the back end, and once David Reinbacher becomes a full-time NHLer—assuming he lives up to expectations—this is going to be a really good hockey team for the next decade. 

UFA’s/RFA’s

Similarly to the Devils, Montreal doesn’t have to worry too much about losing a great deal of their key pieces to free agency this summer. They have four pending UFA’s in Christian Dvorak, Joel Armia, Michael Pezzetta, and David Savard, who said upon entering the playoffs that this was going to be his last season in the league. Savard’s leadership and impact on the younger players will be sorely missed, but assuming Reinacher and other young defensemen continue to take strides, that’s not a major loss on the ice. As for Dvorak, Armia, and Pezzetta, they’re guys that, at the end of the day, Montreal could probably bring back without breaking the bank. But if they leave, they aren’t leaving massive holes in this roster. 

There are a couple of RFA’s that will need new contracts, specifically Emil Heineman, Jayden Struble, as well as goaltenders Jakub Dobes and Cayden Primeau. None of which should break the bank, and all should be expected to be back with the team next season. 

Biggest Question Moving Forward

I’d say Montreal has two main questions moving forward. The first, and arguably most pressing, is what their plan is in net for this next era of Canadiens hockey. It’s incredibly difficult to fill the skates of Carey Price and you have to wonder if Sam Montembeault is the guy to do it. They do have Jacob Fowler. who they drafted in the third round of 2023. who has begun to get a taste of the AHL. Montembeault is 28 and signed through 2027, so perhaps he is their guy until then in hopes that Fowler will become the guy by then? The question with that is, how confident is Montreal in that course of action? 

The other question mark is Patrik Laine, who is entering the final year of his contract that will bring him to unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2026. Is he a guy they want to be around for the long haul, or is he someone they consider shopping at some point between the summer and next trade deadline? Laine is a guy that has moved around a ton since entering the league and I do believe there are some consistency issues regarding the type of player he could be. Is he a gamble Montreal wants to take or do they look elsewhere? 

When you look at the bigger picture, they also have Kirby Dach, who raises some question marks as he’s dealt with a ton of injuries since being drafted 3rd overall in 2019. He, too, will enter the last year of his contract, but will be an RFA at the end of it. Do they want to see him through or do they want to get out before the injuries become too much of a concern? When you look at this team from top to bottom, their biggest question marks come in their middle six. If they can establish a strong second line to back the Caufield line and can secure some identity pieces to fill out the bottom six, they'll be set moving forward.

Projected Lineup

Caulfield - Suzuki - Slafkovsky
Anderson - Evans - Gallagher
Newhook - Dach - Demidov
Heineman* - Kapanen - ?

Matheson - Hutson
Guhle - Carrier
Struble* - Reinbacher? 
Xhekaj

Montembeault - Dobes*

(*-UFAs)

Final Thoughts

Montreal has some really exciting players both on their NHL roster and still in the system. If everything goes according to plan, they can get back to the contending type of team they were in past eras. The fact that this new core got to the Stanley Cup Final at such a young age is definitely crucial experience, and it's just a matter of time before they establish themselves as more consistent contenders and they have important seasons ahead of them to get there.