Elimination Eval: Tampa Bay Lightning

For the third season in a row—following three consecutive trips to the Stanley Cup Final and two championships to go with it—the Tampa Bay Lightning have been shown a first round exit. While there was growing competition in the Atlantic Division, the Lightning managed to maintain their place as a yearly fixture in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. However, for the second season in the row, they came up on the losing side in the Battle of Florida. 

Expectations

Things were certainly different in Tampa heading into the 2024-25 season, but the expectations were to remain the same: to be a competitive, playoff-caliber team. The key difference was that for the first time since he was drafted first overall back in 2008, Steven Stamkos would not be the team’s captain, or on the team at all. He wouldn’t be the only key piece from the back-to-back Cup years to no longer be there, as Mikhail Sergachev was also traded to the Utah Hockey Club back in the off-season. Given such notable changes, a step back wouldn’t have been an unreasonable outcome. But that’s not how Tampa operates. Their goal is to win and they were going to set out to do that with whoever was on the roster. 

They further proved that by re-acquiring Yanni Gourde, along with Oliver Bjorkstrand, at the trade deadline. They may not have been the flashiest trade deadline acquisitions, but Tampa spared no expense giving up a pair of first round picks, a second, a fourth, and Michael Essiymont. As the team drew the Florida Panthers as a first round opponent for the second year in a row the question was, would those acquisitions be enough? Let's get into it. 

Series Recap

Some might say that game one went exactly as planned. Of course, that’s speaking to Florida’s benefit. Matthew Tkachuk returned from LTIR just in time for the start of the playoffs after missing the rest of the regular season following the 4 Nations Face-Off. Naturally, he put up a pair of goals in his return, but it wasn’t just him making an impact. There was another player not typically known for his offense with a pair of goals in veteran defenseman Nate Schmidt. 

It turned out to be a brutal loss for Tampa, as the Panthers only had 17 shots yet still managed to put up six goals. After the opening twenty minutes of the series, Tampa was only down 2-1, but things got out of hand quickly. Jake Guentzel and Brayden Point potted their only two goals, but the biggest concern was Anthony Cirelli leaving the game halfway through.

Game two didn’t go much better, as the Lightning were shutout 2-0. On top of that, they went 0-5 on the power play, which was especially problematic seeing as they finished the regular season fifth in the league in that category. This series was especially feisty, as it tends to be between rivals, but the Battle of Florida always seems to hit differently and especially harder. Brandon Hagel was called for a 5-minute major and given a game suspension for an interference hit on Aleksander Barkov. It was not a great hit by any means, but it feels like this was almost nothing compared to what would happen later in the series. 

Game three would be the high moment for the Lightning as they bounced back with an impressive 5-1 win. Andrei Vasilevskiy had a strong outing and Nick Paul’s second period goal gave his team their first lead of the entire series—a lead they were able to build on and hold onto as Jake Guentzel scored 21 seconds into the third to make it 3-1. However, the nastiness continued as Matthew Tkachuk had a blatantly obvious interference retaliation at center ice on Jake Guentzel that earned him a five minute major, but no further discipline. 

Game four would become both the low point for Tamp and the game changer. After a scoreless first, Tampa took a 2-1 lead into the third period thanks to a pair of goals from Mitchell Chafee and Erik Cernak in only 11 seconds. However, two unanswered goals—also eleven seconds apart—from Aaron Ekblad and Seth Jones erased that deficit and helped Florida secure a 4-2 win to put them ahead in the series 3-1. The hatred and physicality of this series continued to heat up as Ekblad got revenge on Brandon Hagel with a pair of nasty hits, the latter being particularly egregious but that somehow went uncalled, and resulted in Hagel leaving the game.

What happened at the start of the third was an even further escalation of the dirty hits. Niko Mikkola saw Zemgus Girgensons down on his knees, and still opted to go for a hit to the numbers. It was a hit from behind, nearly to the back of the neck, that sent Girgensons head-first into the boards. Mikkola was given five minutes and the rest of the game off, but Tampa couldn’t convert and Florida took a 3-1 lead on the series. 

Despite Tampa striking first in game five, and going back-and-forth with Florida throughout the first two periods, they trailed 4-3 entering the third period and just couldn’t generate anything more. Florida added another before collecting the empty netter to put an end to this series in five games. It was a frustrating way for the Lightnight to go out, but their bodies were likely thankful for the upcoming time off. 

Prediction

This was the series I actually had the toughest time picking a winner for. I thought it was going to be much closer than it ended up being. I did have Florida taking the series, but I was expecting it to go seven games. 

Was the Season a Success?

I’d say this season will definitely be considered an underachievement for the Lightning. Seeing as it has become their third consecutive first round exit after three trips to the Cup Final, the goal has to be to get over that hump if they want to remain competitive. This team has obviously changed from what they were in those back-to-back Cup winning years, but enough of that core is still there. They still have one of the best goalies in the league in net, a criminally underrated and now Selke-Trophy nominee in Anthony Cirelli, one of the league's best defenseman in Victor Hedman, and that’s not to mention Brayden Point, Jake Guentzel, oh yeah, and the perennial Hart and Art Ross Trophy candidate in Nikita Kucherov. 

UFA’s/RFA’s

The Lightning have a handful of noteworthy UFA’s in Yanni Gourde, Cam Atkinson, Nicklaus Perkix, Luke Glendening, and back-up goaltender Jonas Johansson. Of those, Gourde and Perbix are among the most vital. The Lightning are right up there near the top of the salary cap so they’re not going to have a ton of room to maneuver. They could look to move Ryan McDonagh—again—who is entering the final year of his contract. That in itself could be enough to bring back Yanni Gourde, and maybe Perbix too. But I’m sure Perbix, being a right shot defenseman, will test the open market, as he could really get paid. 

As for RFA’s, the Lightning only have Gage Goncalves, who I’m sure they will be able to re-sign for an amount that won’t break the bank. 

Biggest Question Moving Forward

Easily the biggest question for this group moving forward is simply, do they still have what it takes? The Lightning were about as close to a modern dynasty that we’ve seen since the back-to-back Penguins, the 3 Chicago Blackhawks Cups in six years, and the two-out-of-three Los Angeles Kings. But since their three straight trips to the Cup Final, they haven’t won a single playoff series. Are they running out of juice? 

One of the more fascinating storylines to follow will be whether or not John Cooper’s job as head coach is indeed safe, as speculation is already beginning to indicate he could move on. His contract is up for renewal and Larry Brooks of the New York Post seems to think Cooper could have interest in Utah. 

With how crazy the coaching carousel has already been, Cooper joining the mix would be truly wild. However, Tampa is a smart franchise, and smart franchises don’t often make rash decisions. I’d expect this team to look awfully similar heading into next season. But another first round exit next year is when things could start to get interesting, especially with Nikita Kucherov—who was held with a goal throughout the entire series, but who has also been dealing with an injury since late February—entering the final year of his contract. 

Projected Lineup

Guentzel - Point - Kucherov
Hagel - Cirelli - Bjorkstrand 
Geekie - Paul - ?
Goncalves* - Girgensons - Chaffee 

Hedman - Moser
McDonagh - Cernak
Lilleberg - Raddysh
?

Vasilevskiy - ?

(*-UFAs)

Final Thoughts

To sort of answer Tampa’s biggest question, I’d say they still have what it takes to remain competitive. But they are going to need to make some adjustments moving forward. You never want to make excuses for a team getting knocked out of the playoffs but the injuries to Tampa certainly played a role this time around.

They don’t have a ton of holes to fill in the lineup next season, but they’re important ones. With a limited budget, they’re going to have to get creative as they can’t rely on the trade deadline to help solve problems having already traded their first round picks through 2028.