MTPS: The Big But in an Artemi Panarin Trade

In seven seasons with the New York Rangers, Artemi Panarin has been everything the team was hoping they could have gotten from him. With more than 200 goals and nearly 400 assists, he will go down as one of the few free agent signings over the last 30 years who actually worked out. In recent days the smoke around a potential Artemi Panarin trade has gotten so thick that it looks like the inside of Cheech and Chong's car.

It makes perfect sense. The team is spiraling, there's been no word out of either camp about progress on a new contract, and there are several teams that could use a top-of-the-food-chain scorer heading into the playoffs. Artemi Panarin probably should be traded. Artemi Panarin probably will be traded.

Here's the thing, though: The Rangers are in a really rough place when it comes to maximizing the return you would (or should) expect for a player of Panarin's ability, even as a rental. There are two really solid bookend comps for what a potential Panarin trade could net the Rangers.

On the positive side, you have Claude Giroux. Back in 2022, the Philadelphia Flyers sent Giroux to the Florida Panthers for Owen Tippett, a first round pick, and a third round pick.

On the negative side, you have Patrick Kane. The Kane trade was a little more complex because it required a third team for salary cap purposes and Kane was compromised with an existing hip injury, but Chicago would end up netting Vili Saarijarvi, Andy Welinski, a second round pick (that would have moved to a first if the Rangers had made the Eastern Conference Final), and a fourth round pick.

So, what are the Rangers going to get for Panarin? My sense is that it will be something in between—not a game breaking talent like Tippet, but not an AHL-lifer like Welinski. Not a first rounder in this year's draft, but I do think they'll get a first rounder.

Let's look at the teams that are being linked to the Breadman:

So, from these two reports, we have the Detroit Red Wings, Dallas Stars, and Colorado Avalanche. I'll also add in the Florida Panthers because of his relationship with Sergei Bobrovsky and the fact that Florida is Florida.

Of the four teams, Detroit is the cleanest partner. They have plenty of space under the salary cap to absorb Panarin's hit, and they're flush with draft picks and prospects to offer in a deal. Unfortunately, I also think they're the least likely destination. Yes, his good friend Patrick Kane is there and, yes, Kane orchestrated a trade to the Rangers to play with Panarin again. So, I can see a world where Kane convinces Panarin to come play with him in Detroit. I would love to come in here and float a proposal where the Rangers get Detroit's first, Carter Bear, and Nate Danielson, but I just think that the odds are very very small that Panarin would want to play there. So, let us move on.

Trades scenarios involving the other three teams are more likely, but also much more complicated and less likely to yield a dynamic return.