New York Rangers' 2012 Goals Versus Salaries
Goals versus Salary, or GVS, is a simple metric that was developed by Rob Vollman. GVS uses the all-encompassing the Goals Versus Threshold metric (explained here, here, and here) to give a quick overview of a player's value to his team, relative to his cap hit. In Rob's original article, he concluded that 3 GVT was worth $1m, based on the cap era at the time. Last year, I found that the number was 2.79 per $1m. This year, I've left that background math to MyFriendCorey over at Canes County, who came up with 2.2 per $1m. Follow the jump to find the GVS totals for the 2011-12 New York Rangers:
|Player||Cap Hit||GVT||Exp. GVT||GVS||GVS Cap Value||Value Added|
|Michael Del Zotto||$1,087,500||12.6||1.238||11.363||$6,252,273||$5,164,773|
*All Cap Hit data courtesy of CapGeek.com. GVT Data courtesy of Hockey Prospectus. Table is sortable by clicking the column headers.
Before we get started, a quick note on the hits. You'll see that players like Chad Johnson have cap hits in the thousands, rather than millions. The values listed for those players are their prorated portions for days spent on the roster. Similarly, their GVS value is based on those same prorated days.
It should come as no real surprise that Henrik Lundqvist's Hart and Vezina nominated season leads the list. With a GVT of 33.7, he was worth 5.5 wins above replacement (6 goals = 1 win), and his season would be worth almost $16m, of which he got paid 'just' $6.875m. Despite being one of the highest paid goalies in the league, he has been worth every penny, and then some, during his tenure here. After that, we see 4 players with a very key component in common. They're all on their entry-level contracts. This exemplifies why it's very important to have strong organizational depth. Having players that can not only come in and contribute, but do so early in their career creates a giant market gap that can be exploited. It also is a gentle reminder that accelerating the career of Chris Kreider, despite his playoff successes, could still loom large in the long-term plans.
One other player to note on the positive side of the ledger is Anton Stralman. Picked off the scrap heap, he provided solid value as the team's 5th defenseman, and that's before talking about his strong playoff performances. WIth the question asked of whether he earned another contract, the answer clearly looks like yes.
The negative is punctuated by Marc Staal's injury plagued season. The Rangers' most expensive defenseman was worth just 60% of the minimum salary this year, easily the most cap unfriendly season they had. A full offseason camp next year should help him regain some of his previous form. The next name on the list is probably a surprise, but Brad Richards didn't have the season many expected. To be fair, about $800k (1.7 GVT) of his loss came from his struggles in the shootout this season. In a 109 pt season, those shootout goals didn't matter much, except for the Presidents Trophy standings. This is still not a promising start for the first year of a nine year deal.
Next, Mike Rupp. Ok.
The last two of the bottom 5 have sparked a lot of discussion lately. Martin Biron is a free agent and will probably re-sign with the Rangers, but the team needs to be strong in these negotiations. Despite a strong start, Biron ended well below replacement level, and was the only player whose performance would've eliminated him from playing Final Jeopardy. Martin did post a respectable 5.6 GVT last season, so the team did get positive value from him over his two year deal. A similar contract with a smallish raise for his value to Henrik is probably in order, but anything more than that should have the team looking for a different option.
Finally, there's Mr. Dubinsky. Of the last 300 trade proposals here at the Banter, Dubinsky has been included in 350 of them. The biggest knock of course is his contract, perceived to be well over his actual value. GVS says otherwise. Yes, he was in fact negative, but even during a very poor offensive year, Dubinsky's play puts his worth at close to $3.6m. This is buoyed by his strong defensive value (4.9 DGVT, highest of the forwards), which is very often neglected when evaluating him. A few more goals and his value would be right there with his cap hit. Nonetheless, Brandon's Ranger career is very much in doubt this offseason, but bringing in even more cap-inefficent players (more on that later) for him should not be the reason.