2026 Elimination Eval: Montreal Canadiens

For the second season in a row, the Montreal Canadiens made it to the Stanley Cup playoffs, and for the first time since their 2021 run to the Cup Final, have a playoff round win to show for it. After hard fought battles with the Tampa Bay Lightning and Buffalo Sabres, the Canadiens weathered the storm as best they could against Carolina, but fatigue and a more experienced team got the best of them.

Expectations

Last season, the Canadiens dropped their Round 1 matchup with the Washington Capitals four games to one. While they didn't have incredibly high expectations at the start of last postseason, it's clear it was an early arrival at what they hoped would be a serious contention window for this team. That meant that the expectation for this season was to get beyond the opening round of the playoffs.

The interesting part is that Montreal really didn’t do a ton to add to their roster throughout the offseason. On July 1, they traded Logan Mailloux to the St. Louis Blues in exchange for the player the New York Rangers should have drafted with the 16th overall pick in 2021, Zack Bolduc. That proved to be a great trade and, until December, that would be the only notable acquisition they made. Montreal did pull off a trade that would have been labeled a blockbuster in the late 2000s, as Carey Price's contractual rights were sent to San Jose, along with a draft pick, for Gannon Laroque. This was a trade for the accountants, as none of the players involved are expected to play again. (Laroque is only 22 ,but had double hip surgery and hasn’t played since 2024; Carey Price hasn't played since 2022 and is effectively retired.)

The Canadiens most important offseason business centered around two contract signings. The first one extended their 2020 fifth round draft pick, goaltender Jakub Dobes, on a two year deal, and the other one that extended defenseman Lane Hutson for the next eight seasons at an $8.85 million AAV. In addition to those, the Canadiens brought in Joe Veleno and Alexandre Texier on one-year deals, with Texier eventually signing a two-year extension. They also re-acquired Phillip Danault from the Los Angeles Kings in exchange for a 2026 second round pick, which was their only trade of note throughout the season that went on to be an important piece to their team throughout the playoffs. 

Series Recap

The Canadiens opened the playoffs on the road as they took on the always challenging Tampa Bay Lightning. After Josh Anderson put them on the board late in the first period of Game 1, it turned into the Brandon Hagel versus Juraj Slafkovsky show, as the two scored every goal for their respective teams after Darren Raddysh tied it for Tampa midway through the second. Slafkovsky completed the hat-trick to seal the Game 1 victory for Montreal, which became a massive boost to them as they navigated a rather intense series. 

After dropping Game 2 in overtime, the Canadiens bounced right back with an overtime win of their own in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead. For as much as their top players were leading the charge, Hagel was leading it for Tampa, as a pair of third period goals tied the series up in Game 4. Anytime a series is tied four games in, Game 5 becomes the all-important swing game. Thankfully for Montreal, they won both Games 5 and 7, after Tampa took Game 6. Alexandre Texier scored early in the third period of Game 5 to solidify a 3-2 win, and it was Alex Newhook who did the same in Game 7. Jakub Dobes was excellent for Montreal, as they would advance to take on the Buffalo Sabres in Round 2. 

Round 1 was far from a walk in the park, and the Conference Semifinal would be no different. Despite being out-shot 28-16, the Sabres had the upper hand throughout Game 1, as second period goals from Jordan Greenway and Bowen Byram put things out of reach. The Canadiens answered in dominant fashion, not just in Game 2, but in Game 3 as well, posting 5-1 and 6-2 wins to give them the series lead. Four goals from Newhook split across the two games played a huge role in Montreal’s success, as they continued to get goals from a mix of their top players and their depth. 

After dropping Game 4, Montreal won Game 5 thanks to three unanswered second period goals that gave them a well-insured lead. With the opportunity to clinch the series on home ice, Montreal ended up blowing a 3-1 lead they established in the first ten minutes of the game, as Buffalo’s offense exploded in an 8-3 victory. While there would be plenty of low to go around in Round 3, this game to me was the low point for Montreal. In hindsight, had they taken care of business in Game 6 and maybe gotten a little more rest, perhaps they’d give Carolina more of a run for their money. 

Nonetheless, the series went seven games, and in what seemed like the only possible outcome for this series, fans got eleven and a half minutes of bonus hockey. After Danault and Bolduc (on an absolute snipe of a shot) put Montreal up 2-0 and gave them the worst lead in hockey, the Sabres tied it and forced overtime. It was then that Alex Newhook, who was becoming Mr. Clutch for Montreal, snuck a shot through Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to send Montreal through to the Eastern Conference Final. No question that this win was the high moment in these playoffs for the Canadiens. 

Heading into Round 3, Montreal arguably held a brief advantage, as they were rolling and Carolina was coming off almost two weeks of rest. While Seth Jarvis scored on the first shot on goal just 33 seconds in, goals from Cole Caufield, Danault, Texier, and Ivan Demidov in a span of ten minutes gave Montreal a significant lead. While Carolina added another in the third, Slafkovsky put up a pair to secure a 6-2 win that gave them their first and only series lead. 

Shot differential became quite the story early on in this series. On the way to losing both games in overtime, Montreal was out-shot 26-12 in Game 2 and 39-13 in Game 3. They came from behind twice in those games to force OT, but in each of them, it was Carolina that came out on top. As a result, Game 3 was certainly the game-changing point of the playoffs for Montreal. Had they managed to win that one and take a 2-1 series lead, maybe things would have played out differently. But after losing back-to-back games in overtime, it was beginning to feel like they'd run out of gas. 

Carolina certainly proved that in Game 4. Montreal did a slightly better job, generating 18 shots on goal, but they would not find the back of the net at all. Three first period goals gave Carolina an early lead that they maintained throughout the entirety of the game.

Game 5 wouldn’t be much different as Carolina struck early and often, taking a 3-0 lead into the first intermission and a 5-0 one into the second. Cole Caufield spoiled their shutout, but it wasn’t nearly enough as a 6-1 loss put an end to Montreal’s season. 

Prediction

I actually had the Canadiens going all the way to the Stanley Cup Final, which may have been a bit of a stretch, but wasn’t totally far off. I did say early on that Carolina was playing like they wanted to win a Stanley Cup. Had the Hurricanes somehow been upset in Round 2 or something like that, Montreal would have had a good chance at getting to the Final, and then who knows. But all things considered, you have to view this season as a slight over-achievement for the Canadiens. 

Was the Season a Success?

From what I gathered, it seems like there are some mixed feelings about the type of season the Canadiens had. From an outside perspective, I’m not sure how you view this season as anything other than a success. The Canadiens broke a three year playoff drought last season, and they hadn't been a consistent playoff team since the days of Carey Price, Tomas Plekanec, and Max Pacioretty. They were still three wins away from getting to the Cup Final, but if you really look at the outcomes of those first three games, it wasn’t as much of a blowout as it may have seemed losing four games to one.

When push comes to shove, the Canadiens are a young team that had gone to seven games in every series they’ve played, and they were running out of gas. And that's not to mention that Carolina looks determined to win the Cup this year and has had more rest than anyone throughout these entire playoffs. 

UFAs/RFAs

Montreal only has one player who is set to be an unrestricted free agent this summer and, frankly, it’s going to help them more than hurt. Patrik Laine, who was making way too much money and is in serious need of yet another change of scenery, will surely hit the open market and will be one of the more intriguing forward options in free agency this summer. This will help Montreal have the cap space to extend their RFAs as well as give them an opportunity to do some shopping if they so choose. 

Their list of RFA’s isn’t overly extensive, as it’s just Kirby Dach, Joe Veleno, Zack Bolduc, and Arber Xhekaj. I’d expect most, if not all, of them to re-sign to various extensions. However, Dach may be the exception. A former third overall draft pick whose career has been plagued with injuries could be a change of scenery candidate, as well. He’d be an intriguing option for the New York Rangers, assuming he can find a way to stay healthy. 

Biggest Question Moving Forward

Montreal has one of the most promising groups of young core players in or around the beginning of their prime. Canadiens fans should feel pretty good about their future, especially with Dobes establishing himself as a number one and Jacob Fowler knocking at the door.

The biggest question in my opinion is what big swing can they take to really establish themselves as one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference? The Atlantic is one of the most difficult divisions in the entire league. Not only is every team in it capable of being a playoff team, they’re all pretty much expected to be. Yet, there’s only three guaranteed spots for Atlantic teams, five max. If Montreal wants to truly set themselves apart from the competition, they need to make a big move. 

Looking at their roster, their bases are pretty well covered, but they can absolutely use some help down the middle. Vincent Trocheck would absolutely be an interesting solution for them, and Montreal has desirable assets for a trade with the Rangers to make sense—a concept Chip has already explored and will surely continue to this offseason. As currently constructed, their defense is solid and that’s without giving David Reinbacher any consideration. If he takes strides and pushes for an NHL job, they would be in fantastic shape. A great deal of their offense rides on their young forwards who have proven capable of carrying this team. If they can add one or two pieces to the picture, they'll be a right back in contention this time next season.

Projected Lineup 

Caufield - Suzuki - Slafkovsky
Newhook - Evans - Demidov
Texier - Danault - Anderson
Bolduc* - Dach* - Veleno
Kapanen - Gallagher

Matheson - Carrier
Huston - Dobson
Xhekaj* - Guhle
Struble 

Dobes - Fowler

Next in line:

• Forwards: Michael Hage, Owen Beck, Filip Mesar
• Defenseman: David Reinbacher

(*-RFAs) (^-UFAs)

Final Thoughts

This time last season, Canadiens head coach Martin St. Louis had this to say about his group's postseason: 

“The pain that you feel right now is normal. But I think that it’s not even close to the [joy] that’s coming.”

While they may not have achieved the ultimate joy this season, Montreal has certainly taken promising strides to get to where they’re looking to go. I see no reason for them to doubt the process at this point as their core is getting it done, they have more young players rising to the occasion, and they have what has the potential to be a very strong goaltending duo for years to come.